Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls

Abstract

How can obtaining opinion of, say 30,000 voters be sufficient to predict the outcome of an election in a country with over 60 Crore voters? Do the ofinion polls conducted say a month before the elections accurately predict what is to happen on the voting day ?

We will address such questions and show thet simple mathematics and statistics, lots of common sense and a good understanding of the ground reality or domain knowledge together can yield very good forecast or predictions of the outcome of elections based on opinion polls and exit polls. I will share my own experiences with opinion polls and exit polls over last 15 years.